Experts predict economy will be stronger this year

LookAtVietnam – The national economy has overcome recent difficulties and will reach a growth rate higher than last year’s

The conference entitled “ Vietnam economy in 2010: Acknowledging Investment and Business Opportunities” was attended by ministry officials, the leading economists and 300 enterprises who evaluated and forecast the global economy, as well as Vietnam ’s prospects for this year.

 

Participants all agreed that the global economy would show signs of recovery but slowly. Moody’s Credit Assessment Council forecast the world economy would struggle this year, and possibly next year, with unemployment and prolonged budget deficit.

 

Head of the Vietnam Economy Institute, Tran Dinh Thien, said the crisis had reformatted the institutional structure of the world economy.

 

“If floored powerful economies. Some emerging economies have developed strongly and become economic powerhouses,” Thien said.

He added that a recovery could be seen in the future. However, the recovery would include risks and challenges.

 

He emphasised that countries which were seriously affected by the downturn should be careful even though GDP as well as international investment flow would improve this year.

 

Vietnam ’s economy has been clarified to prevent recession and in the process of growth with last year’s GDP of 5.32 percent.

 

Director of the National Centre for Socio-Economic Information and Forecast Le Dinh An provided two forecasts for Vietnam ’s economy this year.

 

“The first concentrates on growth in terms of quality. It would reduce the growth rate to focus on transforming the economy by restructuring production,” An said.

 

He said that under the plan, the growth rate would be 6 to 6.5 percent. The second would achieve a higher growth rate of 7 percent.

 

“This year the world economy and Vietnam ’s have stepped into the first stages of recovery. As a result, import-export activities and foreign direct investment will not increase in the short term. To achieve high growth, the Government would have to increase investment and spending,” An said.

 

He added that the total investment would have to reach 835 trillion VND (46 billion USD), accounting for 42 percent of GDP.

 

“The increase means the budget deficit would rise to 6.5 percent of GDP. The plan, in the context of ineffective investment, would cause inflation,” he added.

 

Under the plan, export turnover would be expected to reach 66.4 billion USD to 67.8 billion USD while import turnover, 77.5 billion USD to 80 billion USD and trade deficit, around 12 billion USD.

 

Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Van Trung said the targets set by the Government for this year were to stable the economy, thus ensuring higher growth rate in terms of both quantity and quality as well as social welfare.

 

VietNamNet/VNA

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